This BBC story, based on a book, "Risk Savvy", by Gerd Gigerenze, is very worrying. It is quite a long article, but worth reading.

Gerd Gigerenze is the director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy in Berlin, and is an expert in uncertainty and decision-making.

What the book and the article say is that a huge proportion of our doctors do not properly understand and cannot manipulate basic statistics. This is shocking and worrying because modern medicine is completely dependent upon statistics:

• They are the tool used to identify which organism causes a disease;
• They are used to balance the risks of treatments, and even diagnostic techniques, against the risks posed by diseases, to help decide whether and how to treat and how to diagnose, and at what age to begin standard screening procedures (e.g. for breast, cervical and prostate cancers);
• They are used to decide which treatments to use, and whether new treatments should be introduced;
• They are needed to explain risks to patients, and to make prognoses ("How long have I got?", "Will I die?", "Will I still be able to ...?", etc.).

In western cultures medical doctors have very high status: they are used to being able to dictate to patients (I don't accept this from my doctors, but many people do), and they are automatically considered trustworthy and well-informed (a doctor is one of the people who can authenticate your photo when you applying for a passport). It seems that maybe this god-like status is not always deserved.

Doctors have to complete a long and arduous eduction in order to qualify. Once qualified, they are expected to keep their medical knowledge up to date (lots of reading, and attending conferences) - in this respect their situation is similar to my own and other professions. What seems to be missing from this major educational programme is basic statistical skills (some of which are really only common sense).

I don't see any chance if this shortfall in statistical skills being corrected any time soon, so what should we all do? The answer is to ask your doctor questions, and not accept their advice as gospel. If you are not happy with what your doctor tells you, get a second (and even a third or fourth) opinion. Use the Internet (with the obligatory pinch of salt) to inform yourself of your options and the risks you face. If your doctor has a problem with you having your own opinions about your health and treatment, get a new doctor. You also have the option to report your doctor to your heath insurer and/or the appropriate medical board if you feel that they are being unprofessional.